The July jobs report came out this morning showing the early signs of stagnation in the U.S. economy. With concerns of a recession or economic downturn growing over the course of the year, it seems that the job market has started to reflect those worries. After the release of last month’s report with 147,000 new jobs, which has since been revised way down (more on that below), July’s report added only an additional 73,000 jobs to the American job market. Experts are calling these numbers, paired with the downward revisions, “stunning.” Others are calling the July report one of the worst since December of 2020, towards the end of the first year of the pandemic. Tariffs are scaring employers across industries, making job creation and hiring more difficult to risk. Uncertainty over President Trump’s other economic policies is rife as well, and these concerns have been steadily building over the year. The White House is scheduled to roll out more tariffs today while companies like Proctor & Gamble have already announced price increases on their myriad of household products in response to the many possible tariffs. As usual, we will be covering more of the specifics below. With all of that in mind, the LZBlog is ready to dive into the new report.
As stated above, 147,000 jobs were added in June, but that report was decreased this week to a mere 14,000 jobs. This morning, the stock market opened much lower, with losses starting as soon as the opening bell rang. Unemployment rose to 4.2%. The number of jobs in the Trucking and Warehouse industries stayed relatively the same in July. As usual, we’ll have more on that sector further down!
June's Job Opening and Turnover Survey
In June, the Job Opening and Turnover Survey showed some major changes from previous reports over the last few months. With the original report showing 147,000 new jobs created, it has created shockwaves to see that it decreased to only 14,000 jobs. Similarly, May’s job numbers were revised down from 125,000 to only 19,000. Combined, there were over 250,000 jobs removed from May and June’s reports. This has sent economic experts reeling. The number of job openings moved downward as well, now listed at 7.4 million. Quits (listed at 3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (reported at 1.6 million) have not shown many changes either. While job openings did not change in the Transportation and Warehousing sector, they did decrease substantially in accommodation and food services by 308,000 and in health care and social services by 244,000. As stated above, while the number of jobs quit is at 3.1 million for the year so far, the quit rate remains little changed at 2.0%.
July's Jobs Report
For the month of July, Non-farm payrolls grew by only 73,000. This stagnation has been slow, but it can be tracked back to April of this year. Economic experts fear that their dismissed concerns are now showing an economy in decline due to President Trump’s chaotic executive orders and tariffs. The news has knocked the wind out of the stock market, with losses already piling up in the early hours. This new report shows that, not only are previous new jobs not real, July’s new jobs have stagnated to the point that it is now clear that there are more troubles ahead. Unemployment rose slightly to 4.2%, experts are starting to forecast that there is more of this to come. The labor force participation rate for July fell again slightly to 62.2%.
Last month, the Healthcare industry, which has been steadily adding small numbers of jobs every month for over a year, added another 55,000 jobs in July. In Government, the decline of federal jobs continued by an additional 12,000. Social assistance employment also continued to increase by another 18,000 jobs in July. Transportation and Warehousing industries showed little change again last month. Again, it seems that the industry is waiting to see how, and if, Trump’s proposed tariffs will affect their truckloads. This is keeping many trucking companies from hiring new drivers or purchasing new equipment. We will be covering this subject further in next week’s blog! There were also almost no changes in the mining, construction, manufacturing, retail, financial activities, and hospitality industries. As stated above, the private sector seems to be waiting with bated breath to see what happens with the economy.
Conclusion
The July Jobs Report came out today with much lower than expected numbers, and it seems that the fears of economists and consumers alike are starting to come to pass. The May and June Surveys were revised to the extreme, with over 250,000 jobs removed from the two reports. With the tariffs and inflation and now recession concerns, July’s job report was met with a shocking amount of concern from the market and economic experts. For another month, job creation continued, but fears are starting to set in for many. Stay tuned to the LZ Blog and our Lionzone social media to follow the job market!
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Meaghan Goldberg covers recruitment and digital marketing for Lionzone. A Patterson, GA native, after graduating from both Valdosta State University and Middle Tennessee State University, Meaghan joined Lionzone in 2018 as a digital recruitment strategist before becoming the social media manager.
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